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Bayes Factors for brms Models

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bfrms

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The goal of bfrms is to …

Installation

You can install the released version of bfrms from CRAN with:

##NOT YET ON CRAN

And the development version from GitHub with:

# install.packages("devtools")
devtools::install_github("bayesstuff/bfrms")

Example

bfrms::bfrm() makes it easy to obtain Bayes factors with JZS priors using brms. To do so, simply call function bfrm as you would call brms::brm(). The following shows a simple example with the Machines data from MEMSS and compares it against the results from the BayesFactor package, which it matches within numerical accuracy (rerun both several times to see this equivalence). Note that the bfrm model should probably also contain the correlation between the by-worker random-effects parameter. However, this is currently not possible using the BayesFactor package which we use as a comparison. Furthermore, the equivalence only holds at the moment if a fixed-effect factor has not more than two levels (that is why we remove Machine == "B" from the data).

Calculating Bayes factors requires appropriate contrast/factor coding that have the same marginal effect on all factor levels. bfrms comes with such a factor coding (following Rouder et al., 2012, JMP), contr.bayes, and applies it automatically to all factors in the data. Also, note that Bayes factors usually require a lot more samples than necessary for estimation, usually at least an order of magnitude more. Consequently, we retain 24000 post-warmup samples.

library(bfrms)
data(Machines, package = "MEMSS") 
Machines <- droplevels(Machines[Machines$Machine %in% c("A", "C"),])

fit1 <- bfrm(score ~ Machine + (Machine||Worker), 
             Machines, 
             iter = 25000, warmup = 1000,
             cores = 4)
fit0 <- bfrm(score ~ 1 + (Machine||Worker), 
             Machines, 
             iter = 25000, warmup = 1000,
             cores = 4)
library("bridgesampling")
bayes_factor(fit1, fit0, silent = TRUE)
#> Estimated Bayes factor in favor of fit1 over fit0: 99.39783

These results replicate the results from the BayesFactor package as shown below. Note that we also increase the number of iterations to obtain more reliable estimates of the Bayes factor.

library("BayesFactor")
mod1 <- lmBF(score ~  Machine + Worker + Machine:Worker, Machines, 
             whichRandom = "Worker", iterations = 1e5)

mod0 <- lmBF(score ~  1 + Worker + Machine:Worker, Machines, 
             whichRandom = "Worker", iterations = 1e5)
mod1 / mod0
#> Bayes factor analysis
#> --------------
#> [1] Machine + Worker + Machine:Worker : 99.31168 ±1.86%
#> 
#> Against denominator:
#>   score ~ 1 + Worker + Machine:Worker 
#> ---
#> Bayes factor type: BFlinearModel, JZS
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